News for NZ Business Owners - 25th September 2025 Edition
Holding Steady While the Ground Shifts
It’s been one of those weeks in New Zealand where the headlines look like a cocktail mixed by a slightly drunk bartender - one part economic gloom, a splash of migration optimism, a generous pour of regulatory theatre and a surprising garnish - a Swedish central banker taking charge of our Reserve Bank.
If you run a business in this country, you might be tempted to roll your eyes and get back to the urgent email backlog. But the trick with weeks like this is to notice the signals hiding inside the noise. Let’s line them up.
A Swede in the Hot Seat
Anna Breman, soon to be our new Reserve Bank Governor, arrives with international credentials and more importantly, without local baggage. She takes over at a time when the economy is already in the dreaded “double-dip” territory - multiple contractions in just over a year.
Why this matters for you -
Interest rates are likely to come down, but timing and size are uncertain. That affects your loans, overdrafts and investment appetite.
Bank lending conditions may change. A governor with global connections might signal stability to offshore investors - good for exporters, possibly harder on borrowers if caution prevails.
Owner’s takeaway - Don’t bet the farm on fast relief. Model your cash flow under three interest rate scenarios - “sharp cuts,” “drip-feed cuts,” and “status quo.” If you know you can survive the slow version, the faster ones become upside.
The Economy Sneezes (Again)
GDP shrank 0.9% last quarter, far worse than forecasters expected. It’s not just a blip - this is the third contraction in five quarters. Households are tightening belts, discretionary spending is weak and the Kiwi dollar is soft.
Why this matters for you -
If you sell to Kiwi households, expect more “we’ll think about it” before purchases.
If you export, weaker currency is your friend. You’re suddenly more competitive offshore - provided you can manage imported input costs.
Investors are spooked. That means capital will look for safe harbours.
Owner’s takeaway - Tighten your sales funnel locally but get more adventurous abroad. If you’ve been flirting with exporting to Australia, Asia, or even India, now is the time to act. Meanwhile, sharpen your value proposition at home - people will pay, but only for things that feel essential or exceptional.
Migration Doors Opening, Chequebooks Too
The government has loosened residency rules and dusted off the “golden visa” programme, now with a much lower entry price for wealthy migrants. At the same time, skilled migration pathways are being relaxed.
Why this matters for you -
If you’re in construction, healthcare, or trades, a larger skilled workforce may relieve wage pressure. Eventually.
If you’re in luxury property, boutique tourism, or niche agribusiness, wealthy visa-holders could be new customers or partners.
For everyone, it signals that government knows we’re short of people and capital and is actively seeking both.
Owner’s takeaway - Be ready for fresh competition for talent, but also fresh opportunity. A migrant workforce won’t solve labour shortages overnight, but it does change the medium-term game. If you rely heavily on skilled staff, invest in onboarding systems now so you can take advantage when new talent arrives.
Regulatory Theatre (Bring Popcorn)
The Regulatory Standards Bill is inching forward. Critics argue it weakens protections, fans say it reduces red tape. Meanwhile, other tweaks - competition law changes, merchant surcharge bans and a shiny new AI institute - are also being waved around.
Why this matters for you -
Some compliance burdens may ease, but costs could simply shift onto SMEs while large players cheer.
Competition law changes may give small businesses a better shot at taking on big incumbents.
The AI institute is a signal that tech adoption will get political oxygen (and possibly funding).
Owner’s takeaway - Stay alert. Don’t assume “less regulation” means less hassle for you. Often it means more self-monitoring and less protection if a bigger player decides to muscle into your patch. But if you’re in tech or services, watch for opportunities to plug into government-funded initiatives.
The Rural Engine Still Chugging
Despite lower volumes, dairy, lamb and beef exports are fetching high premiums. Global demand for trusted Kiwi food is keeping farmgate incomes healthier than expected.
Why this matters for you -
Regional economies tied to farming will feel steadier than city-centric sectors.
Export-linked businesses (packaging, logistics, processing) have reason to invest.
Branding, sustainability and traceability remain the currency of global markets.
Owner’s takeaway - If you supply or sell to the agri sector, don’t buy into the “doom everywhere” narrative. There’s room to innovate, particularly in value-add, sustainability services, or regional hospitality.
Putting It All Together
This week’s mix boils down to a few core signals -
Prepare for slower domestic demand - don’t assume customers will open their wallets quickly.
Expect monetary policy shifts - but don’t rely on them as your lifeline.
Watch migration and investment flows - new people and capital are coming. Position yourself early.
Stay politically aware - regulatory tweaks will alter the rules of the game, sometimes subtly, sometimes dramatically.
Lean into exports and premium positioning - that’s where the growth oxygen currently sits.
The RegenerationHQ Closing Observation
Think of New Zealand business right now as a yacht caught in a patch of unpredictable wind. The new skipper (Breman) is stepping on board. The crew (government, investors, households) is a bit seasick. The waters (global markets) are choppy but not catastrophic.
Your job isn’t to fix the weather - it’s to keep your sails trimmed, your options open and your eyes on the horizon. If you can do that, you’ll not only survive the squalls but may even catch the gust that carries you ahead of the fleet.
The Plug
If you’d like to discuss how to ready your business for new directions or even to establish the health and sustainability of where you are right now, lets have a chat. For goodness sake, it’s free!
📞 Phone +64 275 665 682
✉️ Email john.luxton@regenerationhq.co.nz
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If you’d like to read more RegenerationHQ thinking on SME business and other things, go here – www.regenerationhq.co.nz/articlesoverview
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