A Fraternal Rupture
Watching the UK – What It Means for New Zealand
This piece is personal. It’s a fundamental disagreement about the world between lefty liberal me and my eldest brother who has what might be described as Trump-adjacent views. When my dear brother says, “Watch out what’s happening in the UK, because that’s where New Zealand is heading,” he’s not talking about our love of Marmite or our cricket collapses. He means something more serious - the political turbulence, social division and economic malaise that have come to define modern Britain. His comment is a shorthand warning that unless New Zealand learns from the UK’s mistakes, we risk sliding down a similar path.
To unpack that, it helps to look at Douglas Murray’s provocative book The Strange Death of Europe. Murray argues that Europe is in cultural decline, caused by mass immigration, weak integration and a profound loss of confidence in its own identity. Whether you agree with him or not, his thesis highlights issues that resonate across the Channel and increasingly, across the Tasman.
But New Zealand is not Europe. We have different foundations, different challenges and different opportunities. The task is not to import Britain’s gloom wholesale, but to weigh the lessons carefully and ask - what parallels should we take seriously and what can we do differently?
Politics - The Drift Toward Short-Termism
The UK has become notorious for political instability. Prime ministers come and go at dizzying speed. Manifestos are shredded within months. Policy is driven less by strategy and more by today’s headline or tomorrow’s poll result. Murray doesn’t dwell on this, but it sets the backdrop for everything else - a government that feels reactive rather than visionary.
New Zealand risks something similar. Already, policies are flipped, rewound and re-announced depending on who’s in charge. Long-term issues - housing affordability, productivity growth, climate resilience, get deferred while governments scrap over slogans. My brother’s warning is, in essence, “don’t let Wellington turn into Westminster.”
What we can do differently is encourage cross-party agreements on big, slow-burn issues. Climate adaptation, Treaty relationships, education reform. These need continuity beyond electoral cycles. Otherwise, like Britain, we’ll spend decades rowing in circles.
Society - Cohesion Under Strain
Murray’s book is at its most controversial when he discusses immigration. He argues that Europe has admitted more people than it can realistically integrate, especially from cultures with very different values. Combined with low native birth rates, he sees this as a recipe for identity loss. Critics accuse him of alarmism and cherry-picking extreme examples. They point out that migration has also brought vitality, innovation, and much-needed labour.
New Zealand does face migration pressures. Our housing stock is stretched, infrastructure lags and new arrivals sometimes struggle to find their place. Yet unlike Europe, we are not just a monoculture absorbing outsiders - we are already bicultural, with Te Tiriti o Waitangi as a foundation. This changes the equation. Instead of asking, “What is our single identity and is it under threat?” we are learning to ask, “How do our multiple identities fit together?”
The risk is clear - if political actors weaponise immigration or Treaty debates for short-term gain, we could see the same “culture wars” that now dominate UK headlines. The opportunity, however, is to build confidence in a uniquely New Zealand identity - bicultural at its roots, multicultural in its branches, that can grow stronger, not weaker, in diversity.
Economy - Stagnation and Short Cuts
Britain has spent the past decade wrestling with slow growth, underinvestment and the lingering hangover of austerity. Murray notes these trends but focuses more on culture than economics. Still, the link is obvious - when people feel poorer and less secure, social tensions sharpen.
New Zealand is at risk of similar stagnation. Productivity growth remains anaemic, wages are squeezed by housing costs and government talk of “efficiency” can quickly turn into service cuts. If we copy Britain’s cost-cutting playbook, we’ll only entrench inequality and resentment.
The better path is investment - in housing, in education, in innovation. Britain shows what happens when a government tries to cut its way to prosperity. It doesn’t work.
Where Murray Has a Point
It’s too easy to dismiss The Strange Death of Europe as xenophobic alarmism. While Murray’s tone is often sharp, he does raise valid concerns -
Demographics matter. An ageing population with low birth rates creates real pressures on health, pensions and labour markets.
Integration is not automatic. Communities need support to settle, find jobs and participate.
Cultural confidence is fragile. Nations that cannot articulate what they stand for risk being pulled apart by division.
In New Zealand, these challenges are real too. But Murray’s “death” metaphor overshoots. Cultures evolve - they don’t fossilise or vanish overnight. The question is not whether New Zealand will remain “the same,” but whether it can adapt in ways that keep it fair, cohesive and confident.
What New Zealand Can Do Differently
Here’s a checklist -
Build Confidence in Identity
Embrace bicultural foundations and multicultural reality. Teach our history honestly so confidence grows from truth, not denial.Manage Migration Wisely
Focus on integration through language, jobs and community links. Balance inflows with infrastructure and housing.Resist Culture-War Politics
Don’t let leaders turn Treaty debates or diversity into wedge weapons. Encourage respectful dialogue instead of division.Invest, Don’t Austerity
Learn from Britain’s stagnation - cutting services deepens fracture. Prioritise housing, productivity and education.Nurture Social Cohesion
Create shared spaces for Māori, Pākehā and migrant communities. Celebrate national wins across sport, science and culture.
Conclusion
My brother’s comment - “watch the UK” - is not a prophecy, but a warning. Britain shows what happens when politics is short-term, society is divided and economic strategy is thin. Murray’s book adds another layer - that cultural confidence matters and integration cannot be left to chance.
But New Zealand is not Europe. We have the advantage of learning from their mistakes, and of building on a Treaty partnership that, while contested, offers a stronger foundation than guilt or denial.
Little Brother’s Opinion - The choice is ours. We can slip into fear and division, or we can invest in confidence and inclusion. If we take the UK as a cautionary tale, rather than a script, then our “strange death” need never be written.