18. Agribusiness Outlook - What Weather, Markets and Global Trends Say

Market pressures, climate impacts and resilience for rural businesses

1. Introduction

For New Zealand’s farmers and growers, the pressure isn’t coming from one direction, it’s coming from many. Fluctuating commodity prices, climate extremes, regulatory shifts and global demand changes are reshaping how rural businesses operate.

This article continues Pillar 5 - Sector Spotlights and focuses on the agribusiness sector. It explores how rural operators can read current signals, steady their operations and make decisions that protect both land and livelihood.

2. Representative Narrative

Rob and Mere own a mixed sheep and cropping farm outside Ashburton. It’s been in the family for two generations. In the last 12 months they’ve faced drought, higher input costs and falling lamb prices. Transport delays affected grain sales and compliance changes added another layer of paperwork.

They’ve cut back on non-essentials and made it through, but cashflow is tight and confidence is wearing thin. Unsure whether to invest in irrigation upgrades or hold the line, they connected with John Luxton from RegenerationHQ, who’d facilitated a rural resilience session at their local co-op.

John asked a grounding question - “If things stay as they are for 18 months, what will matter most and what will cost you the most if ignored?”

3. Recommended Actions

• Build a rolling 18-month cashflow forecast
  Seasonal fluctuations require visibility across longer periods. Include known cost increases and market assumptions.

• Strengthen direct market insight
  Don’t rely only on news summaries. Talk to buyers, processors and co-ops about current sentiment and shifts in demand.

• Treat climate as a business factor, not just a weather event
  Invest in practical resilience - water storage, shelter belts, soil health - where it adds long-term value.

• Review input and financing agreements
  Renegotiate where needed. Explore supplier terms, loan structures or co-investment with neighbours.

• Keep succession and structure in view
  Tax, ownership and operations need to align. Delays in planning can compound risks later.

4. Expected Outcomes as Narrative

With John’s support, Rob and Mere built a simplified cashflow forecast, broken into three zones - baseline, pressure and recovery. This helped them spot where current costs would outweigh projected returns unless rainfall improved by early spring.

They met with their bank and shared the model, renegotiating the terms of their operating loan to create breathing space. They also invested in temporary stock shade and held off on equipment upgrades.

What changed most wasn’t the weather - it was their clarity. “We can’t control the climate,” Rob said. “But we can control how ready we are when it turns.”

5. Red Flags & Mitigating Strategies

Red Flag 1 - Operating without a clear cashflow picture
Mitigation - Use simple tools or spreadsheets to track seasonal ebbs and flows

Red Flag 2 - Putting off infrastructure decisions due to uncertainty
Mitigation - Break investments into stages - act on the critical parts first

Red Flag 3 - Waiting too long to talk with lenders or partners
Mitigation - Proactive conversations keep relationships strong and options open

6. HR Best Practice

Farms rely on loyalty, flexibility and shared trust. But seasonal and financial pressure can impact morale fast.

• Keep teams updated on what’s happening - especially casual or seasonal workers

• Offer small consistency where possible - break schedules, check-ins or shared meals

• Invest in safety and wellbeing - even small efforts help

• Encourage two-way feedback - the person fixing a gate often sees more than the person planning the budget

 John often says, “On farms, leadership looks like presence - not just direction.”

7. Psychological Perspective

Many farmers feel they must endure. Stoicism is part of the culture, but it can also create silence and stress. The mental toll of unpredictable seasons, global markets and rising debt isn’t always visible.

Having someone to talk to, whether it’s a rural advisor, farm accountant or someone like John, makes a difference. A problem named is a problem halved. Resilience grows when it’s shared.

8. Recommended Owner's Mindset

Adopt a mindset of deliberate resilience. You don’t need all the answers - but you do need a plan, a peer and a process. Stay grounded, act early and ask for insight when you feel stuck.

9. Reflective Questions for the Owner

• If the current conditions last another 12–18 months, what’s my biggest risk?

• What infrastructure or systems can reduce pressure in the next dry or wet season?

• Am I having the right conversations with my bank, suppliers or family?

• What parts of the business bring in the strongest return for effort?

• Where am I carrying pressure I haven’t named or shared?

10. Suggested Ongoing Actions

• Build or update your seasonal cashflow with worst- and best-case assumptions

• Set quarterly check-ins with your advisor, accountant or bank

• Identify one resilience upgrade and cost it out - even if you don’t start it yet

• Join or reconnect with local rural groups or discussion circles

• Make time each fortnight to walk or review your land without a task list - just observe and reflect

Critical Takeaway - In agribusiness, resilience isn’t about waiting for better weather - it’s about preparing well no matter what arrives.

If you’d like a confidential, free of charge, free of obligation conversation about your business, here’s how to get me.

📞 Phone +64 275 665 682
✉️ Email john.luxton@regenerationhq.co.nz
🌐 Contact Form www.regenerationhq.co.nz/contact

If you’d like to read more RegenerationHQ thinking on SME business and other things, go here – www.regenerationhq.co.nz/articlesoverview

🔹 RegenerationHQ Ltd - Business Problems Solved Sensibly.
Supporting NZ SME Owners to Exit Well, Lead Better and Build Business Value.